1.13.2008

numbers

The election result is out. DPP lost, as expected. But it's quite a surprise still, to lose this much.

All votes are not equal:

In the new (flawed) LY election procedure, there are several small pro-KMT districts, which gives the KMT advantage. Hence the result -- KMT gets 53.5% of the votes but obtained 77.22% of the seats, while DPP's 38.17% votes gets them only 16.46% seats.

The DPP actually gained more votes % despite the lower voter turnout (compare to previous LY elections) and against the KMT's heavy ad-campaigning. That is something to think about.



But there's still hope:
Voter turnout is usually higher for presidential elections. Higher turnout usually is better for the green camp. Also worth noting -- despite the non-stop bombarding of blue/red election campaign, the DPP votes% grew (35.72% --> 38.17%). I think Frank Hsieh still has a chance. It depends on how he will play out his campaign in the next 60+ days.

How will Hsieh work with a 2/3 KMT majority LY would be the question.

Historical Data: LY Election
2001 LY 2004 LY 2008 LY
KMTDPPKMTDPPKMTDPP
votes2,949,3713,447,7403,190,0813,471,4295,010,8013,610,106
votes%28.6033.4032.8335.7253.5038.17
seats%30.1039.2034.6639.7777.2216.46
voter
turnout
66.16%59.16%58.50%


Historical Data: Presidential Election

 2000 P  2004 P 
 KMTPFPDPPKMTDPP
votes2,925,5134,664,9724,977,6976,442,4526,471,970
votes%23.136.8439.349.8950.11
voter
turnout
82.69%  80.28% 

3 comments:

JB said...

雖然結果令人失望
但是仍然還是要為民主努力!

小一 said...

民主大敗
黑金大勝
三月總統大選變成台灣地區領導人選舉

八年來立院多數暴力的箝制
法蘭克乾脆宣佈退選,以示抗議

三大惡霸夾擠小綠
一開頭就不平等的選舉
不如歸去
重振旗鼓
四年後再來

cleverCLAIRE said...

don't fret. whatever we think/feel the reason for losing is, just don't give up on 3/22 presidential election... not before we put on a serious fight.