克萊兒胡思亂想

The election result is out. DPP lost, as expected. But it's quite a surprise still, to lose this much.

All votes are not equal:

In the new (flawed) LY election procedure, there are several small pro-KMT districts, which gives the KMT advantage. Hence the result -- KMT gets 53.5% of the votes but obtained 77.22% of the seats, while DPP's 38.17% votes gets them only 16.46% seats.

The DPP actually gained more votes % despite the lower voter turnout (compare to previous LY elections) and against the KMT's heavy ad-campaigning. That is something to think about.



But there's still hope:
Voter turnout is usually higher for presidential elections. Higher turnout usually is better for the green camp. Also worth noting -- despite the non-stop bombarding of blue/red election campaign, the DPP votes% grew (35.72% --> 38.17%). I think Frank Hsieh still has a chance. It depends on how he will play out his campaign in the next 60+ days.

How will Hsieh work with a 2/3 KMT majority LY would be the question.

Historical Data: LY Election

	2001 LY		2004 LY		2008 LY
	KMT	DPP	KMT	DPP	KMT	DPP
votes	2,949,371	3,447,740	3,190,081	3,471,429	5,010,801	3,610,106
votes%	28.60	33.40	32.83	35.72	53.50	38.17
seats%	30.10	39.20	34.66	39.77	77.22	16.46
voter turnout	66.16%		59.16%		58.50%

Historical Data: Presidential Election

	2000 P			2004 P
	KMT	PFP	DPP	KMT	DPP
votes	2,925,513	4,664,972	4,977,697	6,442,452	6,471,970
votes%	23.1	36.84	39.3	49.89	50.11
voter turnout	82.69%			80.28%